The government has stated that it may cost from US$8 to US$10M to salvage MV Barima. That amount is a drop in the ocean compared with the expected oil profits for the rest of the year. In its 2Q2026 call, Exxon stated, “Again, as we mentioned, at this point, we’ve fully recovered the $55 billion of investment along with all the operating costs.” Guyana should therefore start to have ample cash flowing in to raise the MV Barima.
In 2026, using production data from https://petroleum.gov.gy/data-chart/oil-production/, we can see that, for the first six months, an average of about 27.2 million barrels were produced per month, with an average selling price of US$91.74.
Given that Exxon stated in its investor call covering the quarter ended June 30 that the investment costs for the projects had been recovered, we can expect Guyana to start receiving profits significantly greater than the meager 12.5% of revenue. We estimate that operating costs are around US$10 per barrel, based on HESS stating that the cash unit cost in 2027 would be US$10/barrel (see the 2Q2023 HESS earnings call transcript). In the table below, we show what Guyana’s expected profit take for July could be, excluding the 2% royalty, for oil prices ranging from US$80 to US$120. The war started at the end of February 2026; we use a range of Brent crude prices that reflects prices after the war started.
As can be observed from the table, even at US$80/barrel, Guyana should receive about US$953 million in profits for July, or about 100 times the estimated cost of salvaging the MV Barima. At US$120/barrel,Guyana should receive about US$9 billion during the second half of 2026, or about 1,000 times the amount needed to salvage the MV Barima.
The Guyanese who perished in the MV Barima will never experience the benefits of the vast sums of money flowing up from the bottom of the ocean. But surely, we can more than afford to lift their bodies from the bottom of the ocean and give their families closure through a proper burial; and provide the injured family members with sufficient emotional and financial support to reduce their inter-generational pain and suffering. The Government must step-up and deal compassionately with this national tragedy.
Darsh Khusial
Kenrick Hunte
Joe Persaud
Mike Persaud
On behalf of OGGN, a 501(c)(3) organization
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