SAO PAULO, (Reuters) – Two opinion polls released today showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a potential second-round runoff ahead of next month’s election.
Lula regained a narrow lead over the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro in a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey, while a separate Quaest poll commissioned by Globo showed the lawmaker numerically ahead for the first time.
Bolsonaro’s strong showing in recent polls helped Brazilian assets rally last week as the senator is considered more market-friendly. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.
BTG PACTUAL/NEXUS POLL
- Lula led Bolsonaro 47% to 46% in a simulated runoff in the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey.
- A week ago, Bolsonaro held a 46%-45% lead over the leftist incumbent, marking the lawmaker’s strongest showing in the survey since March.
- In a first-round scenario, the latest Nexus poll showed Lula with 42%, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%).
- Nexus surveyed 2,003 people from September 11 to 13; margin of error 2 percentage points.
QUAEST POLL
- The Quaest poll showed Bolsonaro ahead of Lula by 42% to 40% in a potential second-round runoff.
- A September 7 poll had the two tied at 41% each.
- In a first-round scenario, Quaest had Lula leading with 36% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (31%), Cury (7%), Caiado (4%) and Santos (4%).
- Quaest surveyed 2,004 people from September 10 to 13; margin of error 2 percentage points.
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