-as economy grows 33.3%
Guyana’s petroleum revenue deposits for 2026 are now projected at US$6.498 billion—136.8% above the amount forecast when the budget was presented—as higher oil prices and increased production accelerate inflows into the Natural Resource Fund (NRF).
The revised projection is contained in the Ministry of Finance’s 2026 Mid-Year Report, which also estimates that the economy expanded by 33.3% during the first six months of the year. Non-oil growth was put at 10.1%.
The report largely confirms figures presented by President Irfaan Ali at a press conference yesterday, but provides substantially more detail on the factors driving the expansion and the revised oil-revenue outlook.
Government had initially projected petroleum deposits of US$2.744 billion for this year. That figure has now been increased to US$6.498 billion.
Revenue from the sale of Guyana’s share of profit oil is expected to reach US$5.972 billion, up from the budgeted US$2.352 billion, while royalties are projected at US$508.1 million.
The revision follows what the report described as “cost bank desaturation”, higher crude prices and increased production from the four operating Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessels.
At the time of the budget, 309 oil lifts were projected for the year, of which 40 were expected to go to the government. The latest forecast is for 326 lifts, with the government now projected to receive 84.
During the first half of the year, there were 162 lifts from the Stabroek Block. The government received 21: three from the Liza Destiny and six each from the Liza Unity, Prosperity and One Guyana vessels.
Government received US$1.779 billion from profit oil and US$218.4 million in royalties during the period. With interest income of US$66.9 million, the NRF stood at US$4.294 billion at June 30 after withdrawals of US$1.02 billion.
A further US$1.354 billion is expected to be withdrawn during the second half, taking total withdrawals for the year to US$2.374 billion.
The overall economy’s 33.3% expansion was driven principally by oil and gas, which grew by 41.3% as production climbed from 115.7 million barrels in the first half of 2025 to 163.3 million barrels this year.
Daily production averaged approximately 902,000 barrels, compared with 639,000 barrels during the corresponding period last year.
The report says this was the first full six-month period during which four Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) vessels operated simultaneously. Further growth is anticipated with the continued ramp-up of the One Guyana and the expected start-up of the fifth vessel, Errea Wittu, during the final quarter.
Mining and quarrying
Mining and quarrying expanded by 40.7%, construction by 24.7%, services by 7.2% and manufacturing by 3%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing contracted marginally by 0.5%, largely because of a 6.4% decline in other crops following prolonged rainfall.
Overall growth for the full year is now projected at 20.8%, up from the 16.2% forecast in the budget. The non-oil growth projection has been reduced from 14.3% to 10.2%.
At yesterday’s press conference, Ali repeatedly held out the figures as proof that the economy was diversifying and showing structural strength.
“Of course, for those who are interested in the facts and the economic cycle,” he said while introducing the data.
“Isn’t this an economy that is healthy?” he later asked, before declaring: “This is the facts. This is what we should be debating.”
The report also shows that consumer prices increased by 4.4% between December and June, driven principally by a 6.7% rise in food prices. Vegetables and vegetable products accounted for 2.5 percentage points of the overall increase.
The 12-month inflation rate was 4% at June, compared with 4.2% one year earlier. Year-end inflation is now projected at 4.3%.
Ali focused on the 12-month rate and cited what he described as an approximately 86% increase in refined fuel and diesel prices since the beginning of the year.
“That is a really, really effective management of our economy to contain inflation at that rate,” he said.
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