By Mark Kirton Ph. D
Director, Centre for International and Border Studies
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won an unprecedented fourth term in Brazil’s presidential elections, securing 51.79% of the votes with his rival, Flavio Bolsonaro gaining 48.21% of the votes cast. This can be seen as a victory which has defied all odds and predictions since no presidential candidate who was the runner-up in the first round in Brazilian presidential elections has won in the runoff elections. Further, no candidate who lost the state of Minas Gerais in the first round has rebounded to win the presidency . That State is considered the bellwether state in Brazilian politics and is seen as a microcosm of the country’s demographics and economy. Having lost that state by five percentage points in the first round, Lula won 50.4% of the votes as against Bolsonaro’s 49.6% in the runoff elections. Further, after a record 21.08% abstentions by eligible voters in the first round in early October, the number of abstentions fell to 19.21% , which indicated strong campaigning in the three — week period and could account for increased turnout in some Lula strongholds, especially in northeast Brazil.
Equally significant is the fact that Lula won the elections in an era and geopolitical environment in which seven elections in Latin America since 2025 have seen right-wing presidential candidates emerge victorious and several Latin American states are now closely aligned to the United States policy agenda. Lula’s victory constrains the expansion of US influence in the region and Bolsonaro’s electoral loss denies the US the addition of a critical right-wing ally in the largest South American economy . The Lula ‘comeback’ victory also presents Brazil with a new strategic position to push back against US political and economic demands which confront several regional states.
President Lula turns 81 this week and will become Brazil’s 40th President in January, 2027. He also becomes the first Brazilian president who, at the end of his tenure, would have served for sixteen non-consecutive years, the longest tenure for a democratically elected president in Brazilian history. The Workers Party (PT) must now embark on a succession plan, to sustain the gains made during the abbreviated three-week campaign which brought it to victory. It will also need to adjust its approach to political participation and mobilization and go beyond reliance on a single charismatic leader , who has led the party to victory on four occasions.
Lula will lead a highly polarized nation-state, with a rightward shift in the National Congress. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party ( PL) has increased its representation in the Congress and a significant conservative realignment among the other parties represented will undoubtedly bring new challenges to the congressional arena. With the leverage now evident in the Congress among right-wing and centrist coalitions, skillful negotiations and strategic alliances will no doubt dominate Brazil’s policymaking landscape over the next four years . Further, elections for state governors have also brought shifts towards right-wing and centrist political orientations, adding significant challenges to the complex national political arena.
These elections must also be carefully assessed by the region and by Guyana in particular. Brazil has consistently articulated its position on the inviolability of borders which have been settled juridically and has demonstrated unwavering support for the maintenance of the sovereignty of all states and more particularly, the settlement of the Guyana-Venezuela border controversy in accordance with international law and the mechanisms provided by the United Nations through the adjudication of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). It can be argued that Brazil will fully support efforts at compliance with the ICJ ruling. However, given that country’s consistent stance on issues of sovereignty, any externally -influenced moves to bring about negotiations on the border controversy after the judgment of the ICJ may not be supported by Brazil, since there can be implications, including the redrawing of that country’s borders as a result of any such action. As a consistent and reliable neighbour and partner, committed to the region’s continuing status as a zone of peace Lula’s victory provides the opportunity for Guyana to consolidate its alliance with South America’s leading state and further strengthen links with the BRIC in the region, a country supportive of efforts at sustainable development of the states of the Global South. Brazil’s foreign policy commitment to multilateralism, environmental protection, sustained reduction in Amazon deforestation. Regional security and South American integration will no doubt continue to be major areas of policy focus as President Lula enters his fourth presidential term.
As previously noted, a new Lula government can be expected to accelerate the bilateral arrangements for infrastructural development, including the completion of the Linden-Lethem road link, as well as enhanced trade and economic partnership engagements, with enhanced relations with Mercosur also high on the regional agenda.
In relation to trade, it has been observed that for the first time, Guyana has achieved a trade surplus with Brazil, driven largely by Guyana’s export of crude oil amounting to approximately 98% of total exports from Guyana. This new era of collaboration can bring about an opportunity for Guyana to explore niche opportunities in Brazil. There is great interest in Guyana currently from Northern Brazil, especially in Roraima and Amazonas states. Guyanese entrepreneurs should take the opportunities currently available and creatively explore areas such as the establishment of restaurants which introduce Guyanese cuisine . What about a restaurant in Manaus- “ Pepperpot da Guyana” or “ Delicias Guianenses” in Boa Vista.
Further , my research has indicated that there is a growing interest in cricket in Brazil. Administered by CricketBrazil, Brazil’s women’s cricket team has won four of the last five South American championships (Guyana does not participate in the tournament though geographically South American) and the men’s team has won the 2026 T20 South American championship in Colombia. This growing interest in cricket can create opportunities for Guyana to enter the Brazilian cricket sector and can establish a niche by providing coaching clinics , seminars on umpiring, pitch preparation and cricket management, among other related areas. This can also serve to encourage sports tourism, as cricket lovers from Brazil may become attracted and interested in watching the Caribbean Premier League (CPL) matches in Guyana and the region.
Further, as the demand for ethanol increases, and Brazil’s experience in its production, Guyana and Brazil can collaborate to use some of the existing sugar lands in Guyana in joint venture activities to produce and export this commodity.
In a previous opinion piece, after the first round of the presidential elections, I had indicated that it was not over until the ‘ fat lady’ sang, implying that one should not assume the final outcome until the event is completed. The ‘fat lady’ has sung the second verse and it is now over – President Lula has won a historic victory and Guyana and the region must now seek to intensify and upgrade their engagements with South America’s leading nation and develop sustainable programmes for mutual benefit.
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