Between US$8 billion and US$10 billion of the Caribbean Community’s (CARICOM’s) annual imports, around one quarter to one third of the Region’s non-fuel import bill are subject to the transit restrictions now taking effect at the Panama Canal, according to preliminary analysis by the CARICOM Private Sector Organization (CPSO).
In a release yesterday, the CPSO is advising importers and governments to plan for higher landed costs and thinner inventories through the dry season next year.
The Panama Canal Authority’s Advisory A-29-2026 limits daily transits at 34 vessels for booking dates from 4 September, falling to 32 from 15 September.
Rainfall in the canal watershed has run 34% lower than the historical average from May through August, with inflows 44% below, CPSO said. The Authority has warned that the expected intensity of the 2026 to 2027 El Niño could further reduce water
availability during the next dry season, from January to April 2027.
“The cost signals are already visible. A priority auction slot recently fetched US$5.3 million, reported as the highest bid ever recorded, and CMA CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd have each announced per-TEU surcharges on canal-dependent routes, with further increases expected as draft limits tighten”, the CPSO said.
“Auction premiums and low-water surcharges do not stay on the carriers’ books,” said Dr. Patrick Antoine, CEO and Technical Director of the CPSO. “They are passed down the chain to importers, to distributors, and ultimately to the Caribbean consumer. When slot scarcity forces carriers to reroute
or rationalise port calls, small Caribbean markets are typically the first to lose frequency and the last to regain it”, he warned.
CARICOM economies are among the most import-dependent in the world, the release stated.
The CPSO estimate covers both cargo travelling through the Canal directly, between US$4.5 billion and US$7 billion a year, and Canal-transited cargo consolidated via United States ports before onward shipment to the Region. The CPSO said that the risk to consumers is twofold: availability, through longer lead times and thinner inventories; and price, as surcharges and longer
voyages feed into landed costs.
With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also disrupted by the Iran war, the CPSO said that two of the world’s critical maritime trade corridors are under pressure simultaneously, lifting freight rates, war-risk premiums and fuel costs globally. It said that for petroleum-importing CARICOM states, that compounds pressure on electricity, transport and food prices at the same time.
The CPSO said it presented its Derisking CSME Imports methodology to the CARICOM Heads of Government
Breakfast Meeting in Saint Lucia in July 2026. The framework, it said, maps the Community’s exposure to extra-regional supply shocks and identifies, product by product, where intra-regional production and alternative supply corridors can take the place of vulnerable long-haul imports.
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