Following their routine Article IV consultation with Guyana, an IMF team has said that economic outlook remains highly favourable and it lauded the government for the management of the economy.
In a Concluding Statement issued yesterday following a virtual and in person visit between July 20 and July 31, the IMF team said that the economy here continues to grow at a very rapid pace, supported by robust oil and non-oil activity.
“Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 percent during 2023–24. Oil production exceeded expectations and surpassed 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025—an impressive 35 percent increase over one year, with similar volumes recorded in the first half of 2026. Encouragingly, broad-based growth in the non-oil economy continued at about 14 percent, with construction remaining the largest driver, and agriculture, mining, and manufacturing also contributing meaningfully”, the statement said.
It said that the robust growth was also reflected in a stronger labour market, with unemployment down at 6.2 percent by the end of last year Average inflation was kept to 3.3 percent in 2025 but edged up by mid-2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices.
The IMF team said that the economic outlook remains highly favourable. Oil production, it said, is expected to continue growing and the non-oil economy is projected to broaden by about 7 percent on average over the next five years as the government continues its “ambitious plans” to address infrastructure and developmental needs. The external position is expected to remain strong over the medium term, supported by higher oil production as new fields come onstream and existing projects mature. High oil prices bolster the outlook for export earnings and the fiscal position going forward. As oil operators complete cost recovery, the IMF team said a larger share of oil revenues will accrue to Guyana through higher inflows into the Natural Resource Fund (NRF).
Risks around the near-term outlook, the team said, are broadly balanced in the context of elevated global uncertainty.
“On the upside, further oil discoveries would continue to improve growth prospects, and construction growth and strong public investment may support higher than expected short-term non-oil growth. Higher oil prices would further improve fiscal and external accounts but could also intensify overheating pressures, leading to real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy, with oil price volatility adding to fiscal risks. Adverse climate shocks may also negatively impact the economy”, the IMF team said.
The staff commended the authorities for what they described as sustained prudent fiscal policies. They said that the fiscal deficit is expected to widen somewhat in 2026 due to social transfers and electricity subsidies but improve in 2027 given the one-year lag in the NRF withdrawal rule.
“If oil prices remain persistently high, a larger share of additional oil revenue should be saved, in line with the economy’s absorptive capacity. Public spending should continue to prioritize productivity-enhancing projects and support the most vulnerable. Policy efforts should remain focused on strengthening monitoring of spending outcomes and oversight of public enterprises. Staff urged that consideration be given to improving the targeting of subsidies. Over time, broad price-mitigating measures should be gradually phased out, as they can weaken price signals. The authorities’ prudent borrowing strategy continues to support debt sustainability, with the risk of debt distress assessed as low, as in the previous assessment”, the IMF team said.
Reflecting robust commitment to fiscal responsibility, the Concluding Statement said that policies have supported “rapid accumulation” of substantial NRF balances and one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the hemisphere.
To help guide the balance between spending now and the needs of future generations, the non-oil primary balance could serve as the main operational target, strengthening gradually over the next decade to a level consistent with a chosen long-run anchor, the IMF team advised. During the transition period, it said that public spending should continue to be aligned with peer-country levels of Sustainable Development Goal-related expenditure—taking into account the higher cost of public service delivery in a low population density country such as Guyana.
Monetary policy, the Concluding Statement said should remain consistent with the stabilized exchange rate arrangement and price stability.
“Policy continues to operate within a reserve money targeting regime, with liquidity management—primarily through FX operations—helping moderate base money growth. Broad money growth should remain broadly aligned with nominal non-oil GDP, with liquidity managed through FX operations, as needed, in addition to greater use of treasury bills and reserve requirements. Additional tightening would be warranted if demand pressures intensify, credit accelerates, or exchange rate pressures emerge.
“Over time, as Guyana’s economy expands and diversifies, incomes rise, and FX demand persists, the monetary framework should be strengthened by activating the interest rate channel, deepening financial markets, improving macroprudential tools, and gradually scaling back broad price-mitigating measures. These steps would enhance monetary transmission and further support macroeconomic stability. The current stabilized exchange rate regime remains appropriate, and over the medium term, as policy frameworks mature and the economy diversifies further, consideration could be given to allowing greater exchange rate flexibility to facilitate macroeconomic adjustment and enhance resilience to shocks”, the IMF staff team said.
Financial stability
It added that the banking sector remains well capitalized, with strong liquidity buffers and improving asset quality. Further, stress tests continue to suggest that banks remain resilient under reasonable adverse scenarios the team said but it entered a caution about the housing market.
“Staff welcomes the authorities’ continued vigilance in safeguarding financial stability, including concentration risks. Developing a comprehensive macroprudential framework, including through technical assistance, would further help safeguard financial stability, and enhance policy formulation and implementation. Rapid growth in the housing market, largely supported by public housing investment, warrants continued close monitoring, and developing a real estate price index would strengthen the financial stability toolkit”, it said.
On the question of governance, the Concluding Statement said that staff welcome ongoing efforts to further enhance public sector transparency and service delivery, supported by digitalization. It said however there was a need to conclude cost oil audits and to bolster audit capacity especially in the oil and gas sector.
“The authorities are advancing digital solutions across key public services, including interoperability of management information systems. Timely audits of available financial accounts continue, supported also by efforts to strengthen internal audit practices. Staff acknowledges the authorities’ efforts to resolve outstanding cost-oil audits, including through arbitration. Given their fiscal and governance implications, resolving these audits in a timely manner remains important. Improving timeliness of financial accounts of public enterprises and agencies also remains a priority. The authorities are encouraged to continue strengthening audit capacity, especially in oil and gas sector”, the IMF team said.
As public expenditure grows rapidly, ongoing efforts to further strengthen public procurement practices and ensure “consistent compliance” with the procurement framework will help safeguard spending quality, supported by the new centralized digital platform.
IMF staff welcomed the authorities’ “strong commitment” to strengthening the Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) and anti-corruption frameworks.
“The authorities are pursuing a comprehensive approach to AML/CFT, including steps to address vulnerabilities identified in Guyana’s 2024 Mutual Evaluation Report by the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force and preparing new AML legislation along with modernizing the relevant legislative frameworks. Staff commends the authorities’ efforts to strengthen oversight and transparency of the gold mining sector, with the planned risk assessment of extractive industries expected to contribute to identifying remaining gaps and informing further reforms. While some beneficial ownership information is already publicly available, facilitating public access and enhancing monitoring and enforcement of reporting requirements would further support transparency. Continued strengthening of the Integrity Commission, including compliance with and enforcement of asset declaration requirements, will also reinforce the broader anti-corruption framework’, the Concluding Statement added.
The staff report will now be submitted to the IMF Board for approval. There was no reference in the report to the July 18th catastrophe that led to 73 deaths with dozens more missing and how that reflected on governance and transparency.
The IMF staff team was led by Lusine Lusinyan. The team met with Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh, Central Bank Governor Dr. Gobind Ganga, Minister of Parliamentary Affairs and Governance Gail Teixeira, Attorney General and Minister of Legal Affairs Anil Nandlall, and other senior officials, representatives from the private sector, banks, labour unions, and other stakeholders.
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