By Mark Kirton- Director, Center for International and Border Studies
As widely predicted, the 2026 Brazilian presidential election goes to a second round – a runoff election- on 25th October, since neither of the two leading candidates received 50% +1 of the votes cast, with Flavio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro receiving 47.03 % of the votes cast and incumbent President Lula da Silva gaining 45.16% of the votes. Under the 1988 Constitution of Brazil, if no candidate receives 50%+1 of the total votes, a runoff between the top two candidates takes place. It is interesting to note that 21.04 % (33.4 million) of eligible electors did not vote at Sunday’s elections and 2.2 million blank ballots and 3.6 million invalid ballots were recorded. The eliminated candidates collectively totaled 7.82% of the votes cast. Of equal significance is that no candidate who has placed second in the initial round of a Brazilian election has ever won in a second/runoff round since it was introduced under the country’s 1988 Constitution. These statistics indicate a crucial test for President Lula, who at 80 years old, and facing an emboldened opposition, has already witnessed anti-incumbent voting and changes in government in Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras and Peru over the last year. On the other hand, Flavio Bolsonaro won the Southeast Brazilian state of Minas Gerais in the first round and his victory in this state carries added significance, since in every election since the return to direct elections in 1989, the candidate who won this state has become Brazil ‘s president. Analysts now posit that a fresh round of mobilization must now be initiated to receive support from the voters who supported the eliminated candidates in the first round and, at the same time, bring to the polling places, a significant number of voters who abstained from Sunday’s first round.
It has been observed while his right-wing political orientation remains strong, like most of the new Latin American presidents, Flavio Bolsonaro has campaigned on issues mainly articulated by frustrated citizens, and on a platform centered around fiscal conservatism, and a return to economic growth through reduced federal spending and lower taxes . Additionally, Bolsonaro has pledged aggressive policies aimed at reducing crime through the ‘mano dura’ or ‘iron fist’ approach to criminal gangs and drug traffickers, along with the construction of new prisons, following the popular model initiated by El Salvador. In relation to foreign policy, apart from being seen as a triumph for President Trump’s hemispheric policy, a Bolsonaro presidency would bring close alignment with US foreign policy positions including participation in the US-led Shield of the Americas and, in stark contrast to the Lula administration, a potential retreat from multilateralism and reduced engagement with the BRICS group.
President Lula, on the other hand, framed his campaign around the maintenance of social protection, higher minimum wages, the strengthening of national institutions, border security and the protection of state sovereignty. Additionally, in relation to foreign policy, President Lula‘s campaign included the maintenance of multilateralism as a priority area of focus,continued alignment with the Global South and sustained engagement with the BRICs group. A new government under Lula may seek to enhance South American relations through a reengineered regional integration effort and a reconfigured UNASUR which can serve to provide mutual benefits in areas such as trade, security and energy security
As a neighbouring state, with more than five decades of formal diplomatic relations, Guyana must seek to strategically analyse the potential outcomes of the elections in that country. As previously, noted, Brazil, a reliable partner, which has settled borders with Guyana for more than a century, has consistently supported the sanctity of juridically- established borders and provided support as a counterweight to potential aggression and, irrespective of the government holding office, has continued to actively pursue the enhancement of bilateral ties.
In Sunday’s elections, in the border state of Roraima, Flavio Bolsonaro received 71.1% of the votes cast, while Lula Da Silva received 21.1 % of the votes. In the state of Amazonas, Bolsonaro received 45.1% and Lula received 48.1 % of the votes cast. In Georgetown, the only polling centre in Guyana, where there was a low voter turnout, Flavio Bolsonaro received 81.13 % and Lula garnered 13.21 % of the 53 votes cast. This turnout could be attributed to the location of the singular polling place in the capital, while large numbers of Brazilians are located in the hinterland and interior regions of Guyana. Irrespective of the political configuration in both states of Northern Brazil, Guyana-Brazil trade and economic relations as well as people- contact continue to grow and it can be expected that these ties will continue to grow as development on both sides of the border increases.
As analysis of the potential impact on Guyana of the results of the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections unfolds, there are several issues which must be interrogated. While that country’s support for Guyana’s sovereignty and territorial integrity will undoubtedly remain unhindered, Brazil must be consistently engaged , as the middle-power state in South America, irrespective of the government in place, to play a leading role in supporting compliance with the judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), in the post-adjudication period, extending its influence to ensure that South America is maintained as a zone of peace. A government led by Flavio Bolsonaro, given its alignment with US policy positions, and with membership of the US-led Shield of the Americas early in the life of that government, can join Guyana which is already an active participant in the Shield’s activities, and this can lead to a more robust and coordinated defence and security engagement. On the other hand, while there are those who posit that the presence of a regional power as a neighbour with close alignment to the United States can bring about a more predictable geopolitical environment and can yield mutual benefits, the current transactionalist approach of the US government has to be considered, given its current moves to engage Venezuela, especially in the oil and gas sector and its implications for smaller regional states like Guyana. A new Lula-led government will be expected to continue its policy focused on the maintenance of Guyana’s sovereignty and its borders settled, and on the diversification of Guyana’s linkages to reduce reliance on a singular distant security alliance. In relation to trade and infrastructure development, any new Brazilian government, led by Bolsonaro or Lula, will seek to accelerate the development of surface, air and maritime connectivity as priorities to maximize the potential benefits of increased trade and people-contact through the completion of the Linden-Lethem roadway and the proposed deepwater harbour, as well as new airline connectivity, given the fact that Guyana is the only South American country that does not currently have direct airline connectivity with any Brazilian city. Additionally, Guyana’s emerging oil and gas sector has attracted serious interest globally, will also see additional focus being placed on the energy corridor in the Guiana Shield, which includes Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela.
A new government in Brazil in early 2027, led by left-wing Lula Da Silva or right -wing Flavio Bolsonaro must continue to receive close attention from the government and other Guyanese stakeholders including the private sector and civil society. Issues related to environmental protection, the Amazon rainforest and its contribution to the global community, border security, irregular migration and energy and food security must continue to be priorities on the bilateral agenda for sustained engagement.
There is a saying that “it ain’t over ‘til the fat lady sings’. In other words, we should not assume an outcome until the event is completed. Both Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro must now be saying ‘Let’s get ready to rumble’, as they start this new abbreviated but competitive and complex phase of campaign activity. The first verse was sung by the proverbial ‘fat lady’ last Sunday and the second or last verse will be sung in three weeks’ time. Guyana must however be prepared and strategically positioned to join the chorus of engagement with a new government in Brazil that leads to sustained bilateral cooperation, greater understanding, enhanced mutual trust and greater benefit to citizens of both states.
Discussion