Exxon raises 2050 global emissions forecast, sees slower coal decline

HOUSTON,  (Reuters) – The world is at risk of falling behind in efforts to reduce carbon emissions by 2050, ExxonMobil said in its annual energy outlook published yesterday, as ​the burning of coal could decline at a slower rate than previously expected.

Exxon estimates ‌coal will account for 15% of the world’s energy mix by 2050, down from 25% in 2025, but up by one percentage point from the company’s previous projection. That is because coal is still a significant energy ​source in China and other countries in Asia and is considered key for energy ​security, said Prasanna Joshi, Exxon’s director of economics and energy, at a briefing.

Last ⁠week, the International Energy Agency forecast global coal demand to rise to a record 8.94 billion metric ​tons this year, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran chokes off exports of crude and liquefied natural ​gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Exxon’s outlook, which provides the basis for its investment decisions, does not account for the Middle East conflict because it is too early to determine the full ramifications, Joshi said.

“We need a ​few more years to really understand what the impact is going to be on long-term fundamentals,” ​he said.

Here are more details on Exxon’s energy outlook:

• Annual global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall ‌to 30 ⁠billion metric tons by 2050, far above the level of 11 billion metric tons that a United Nations body determined would be needed to limit increases to the average global temperature.
• That level of emissions in 2050 implies global temperatures could rise between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius, Joshi said.
• Last ​year, Exxon projected annual ​2050 global emissions would ⁠be 27 billion metric tons.
• Exxon also lowered its estimate for the amount of carbon that will be captured globally and stored underground. The company ​forecasts that amount could reach 2 billion metric tons by 2050, down ​from its ⁠prior estimate of 3.1 billion metric tons.
• Oil demand will reach about 105 million barrels per day in 2050, up from the global consumption of 100 million bpd last year. The projection is unchanged from Exxon’s ⁠previous ​estimate.
• Global electricity demand is expected to grow 65% by 2050 ​from 2025, largely in line with Exxon’s previous estimate. The demand growth will be driven by industrial sectors and the ​increasing number of data centers.