Former Auditor General Anand Goolsarran has upbraided the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for what he described as the unbalanced and “rosy” view of the Guyana economy presented by its team which visited recently for an Article IV Consultation.
Writing in Sunday’s Kiskadee Watch Goolsarran pointed to a series of indicators and facts that the team omitted in its presentation and cast doubt on whether a wide cross-section of persons had been spoken to.
In his Governance and Accountability column, Goolsarran said that there was no evidence that the IMF team met with the political opposition, other civil society organisations, such as the Guyana Human Rights Association and Transparency Institute Guyana Inc., or journalists/commentators from the independent media.
“Had it done so, the Fund would have benefited from a more balanced view of the performance and state of the economy, its future prospects and the extent to which all citizens, especially those in the lower rungs of the economic ladder and other vulnerable groups, benefit from what the Fund considered continuous strong growth since the discovery and production of crude oil resources”, Goolsarran asserted.
He said that the team ignored findings by the Inter-American Development Bank about the rate of poverty here and a Bloomberg report about the prospect of the Resource Curse affecting Guyana.
“Other relevant matters that appeared to have escaped the attention of the team include: (i) the huge overdraft on the Consolidated Fund; (ii) excessive borrowings to finance the National Budget; (iii) Guyana’s latest score and standing on the Corruption Perceptions Index which continued to place it at the bottom of the table from among the English-speaking Caribbean; (iv) Guyana’s ranking of 115 out of 193 countries in 2023/2024 on the UNDP Human Development Index; (v) the lack of effective functioning of the Integrity Commission to hold public officials to account for their income and assets and liabilities as well as their lifestyles; (vi) the failure to appoint new members of the Public Procurement Commission for more than a year; and (vi) the six years of backlogged scrutiny of the public accounts by the Public Accounts Committee”, Goolsarran stated.
He added: “This glorious and rosy assessment, with words of congratulations as to how well the economy is being managed, leads one to question whether the team was not acting a cheerleader for the Authorities. As one economist points out, it was a political report rather than an economic one!”
He also faulted the IMF team on the question of the oil-led Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Pointing to its declaration that the real GDP grew by over 19% in 2025 following average growth of nearly 40% during 2023 to 2o24, Goolsarran said extreme caution had to be applied here as 87.5 percent of oil production belongs to ExxonMobil’s three subsidiaries.
“One may ask: how much of this growth translates into real economic and social benefit for the ordinary citizens? Perhaps, a more meaningful measure is the use of the non-oil GDP growth”, Goolsarran posited.
Noting that the IMF said that average inflation was 3.3 percent in 2025 but edged up by mid-2026, Goolsarran said that considering the unprecedented high cost of living as highlighted in numerous articles in the Stabroek News last year as well as earlier years, the 3.3 percent does not comport with the reality of the situation on the ground.
On the matter of the overall fiscal deficit being 5.5 percent of GDP in 2025, with the non-oil primary deficit amounting to one third of non-oil GDP, Goolsarran said “Again, we may point out that the use of the country’s large GDP on account of oil production will show lower fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP. The actual fiscal deficit for 2025 was $308.8 billion, representing some 25 percent of the 2025 Estimates. In its 2025 report, the Fund referred to the government’s commitment to eliminate the overall fiscal deficit over the medium term and highlighted the need for a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework from which the National Budget is anchored. However, there has been no movement on both fronts, and the Estimates continue to be prepared in isolation of such a framework”.
Considering Guyana’s high income status in line with countries such as the United States, Canada and Australia, by virtue of being a major producer of oil and gas, Goolsarran asked whether it was not time that there should be a balanced budget, meaning that expenditure should not exceed revenue earned.
“And should the Authorities not scale back on their ability to borrow to finance the National Budget and use some of the oil revenues to accelerate the repayment of the country’s debts, thereby relieving some of the burden of future generations to do so?”, he further questioned.
Pointing out that Guyana has been categorized as a high-income country, Goolsarran said that this categorization of Guyana works out to a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of a little over $3 million at a time when: (i) the private sector monthly minimum wage is $60,147 while that of the public sector is $100,000; (ii) 58 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, with 32 percent in extreme poverty; (iii) old age pension is $46,000 per month; and (iv) minimum National Insurance payment of $43,075 per month.
“In fact, Guyana’s GNI per capita is 4.16 times the private sector minimum wage which is an indicator of the level of income disparities among the country’s population. These considerations appeared to have escaped the attention of the IMF in its assessment on Guyana”, Goolsarran chided.
In a Concluding Statement issued on July 31st following a virtual and in person visit between July 20 and July 31, the IMF team said that the economy here continues to grow at a very rapid pace, supported by robust oil and non-oil activity.
“Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 percent during 2023–24. Oil production exceeded expectations and surpassed 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025—an impressive 35 percent increase over one year, with similar volumes recorded in the first half of 2026. Encouragingly, broad-based growth in the non-oil economy continued at about 14 percent, with construction remaining the largest driver, and agriculture, mining, and manufacturing also contributing meaningfully”, the statement said.
It said that the robust growth was also reflected in a stronger labour market, with unemployment down at 6.2 percent by the end of last year Average inflation was kept to 3.3 percent in 2025 but edged up by mid-2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices. The IMF team said that the economic outlook remains highly favourable. Oil production, it said, is expected to continue growing and the non-oil economy is projected to broaden by about 7 percent on average over the next five years as the government continues its “ambitious plans” to address infrastructure and developmental needs. The external position is expected to remain strong over the medium term, supported by higher oil production as new fields come onstream and existing projects mature. High oil prices bolster the outlook for export earnings and the fiscal position going forward. As oil operators complete cost recovery, the IMF team said a larger share of oil revenues will accrue to Guyana through higher inflows into the Natural Resource Fund.
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